By Jacob Seliga
Lead Writer
On Saturday morning, the eyes of the college football world will descend upon Arlington, Texas for the 2024 Big 12 Championship Game between No. 15 Arizona State and No. 16 Iowa State.
This championship game is for more than just conference pride as the Sun Devils and Cyclones are fighting for the opportunity to be the lone representative from the Big 12 in the inaugural 12 team playoff.
Both teams enter this game as unlikely participants as in the preseason, Iowa State was predicted to finish outside the top five in the conference and Arizona State was predicted to finish in last place.
Last week, the Cyclones defeated then No. 24 Kansas State 29-21 to clinch its first ever 10 win season and second conference championship appearance in school history. The first appearance came in the abbreviated 2020 season which was shortened due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
Arizona State avenged a 59-24 drubbing to Arizona last season with a 49-7 thrashing of the Wildcats on Saturday that saw the Sun Devils secure its first appearance in a conference championship game since 2013 when the program was formerly a member of the Pac-12 conference.
However, the matchup wasn’t perfect for the Sun Devils as potential all-American wide receiver Jordyn Tyson suffered an undisclosed shoulder injury. Head coach Kenny Dillingham did tell the media during his weekly availability that the injury required surgery and will keep him out of this matchup and the remainder of the season.
Even with news of Tyson’s injury, the Sun Devils are considered the favorite as most sports books have Arizona State as a 3-3.5 point favorite although ESPN’s football power index gives Iowa State a 55% chance to win.
This matchup is the first ever meeting between both programs and with Iowa State a relative unknown to most Sun Devil fans, this is a preview to learn what to expect and what to know about the Cyclones going into the game.
Iowa State offense
For all the rightful praise the Big 12 conference has received for its quality quarterback play this season, one quarterback has shined mostly above the rest. And that quarterback is Rocco Becht of the Cyclones.
This season, Becht led the Cyclones offense with 3,021 passing yards and 20 touchdowns while completing 59.2% of passes. An improvement from his strong freshman season in 2023 as Iowa State jumped to a top 30 scoring offense in the country.
Becht’s success came while having one of the best receiving duos in the country with senior Jayden Higgins and senior Jaylin Noel.
Higgins was more of the possession receiver who would be called upon to pull in passes in between the numbers and in the quick passing game as his 80 receptions and 1,068 receiving yards both rank in the top five in the conference.
Noel is the big play threat and poses the biggest challenge for opposing secondaries with his ability to create separation with a great release at the line of scrimmage and break defenses over the top. He’s pulled in 13 less receptions sitting at only 67, but his 1,013 receiving yards don’t linger far behind as he has pulled him seven receptions of 44 or more yards.
The duo has combined for 15 touchdowns which is 80% of Becht’s total, 68% of his passing yards, and 65% of his completions.
Simply put, take away one or both of the options for Becht and the Cyclones passing attack becomes almost non-existent although that is very much easier said than done.
Noel in the Cyclones loss to Texas Tech was bottled up to only 5 receptions for 44 yards while Higgins had a career day for both receptions and yards. In the loss to Kansas, Higgins fell short of his averages while Noel had a career high in receiving yards.
While the passing attack will draw most of the attention, Iowa State holds one of the better running back tandems in the conference with sophomore Carson Hansen and sophomore Abu Sama III.
The duo leads a rushing attack that averages 171 yards rushing per game that ranks in the top 50 nationally while Sama and Hansen have combined for 13 rushing touchdowns and 1,165 rushing yards.
Iowa State defense
For how explosive the Iowa State offense has showcased the ability to be throughout the season, the defense has been rather inconsistent.
If one was to look at a box score of Iowa State’s games, the Cyclones look like a dangerous unit.
After all, the defense held eight teams to 21 or less points and by the numbers ranks inside the top 10 in almost every passing defensive category.
But the key reason for that success is that Iowa State has a fatal flaw that played a big role in the Cyclones losses to Texas Tech and Kansas, and that’s the rushing defense.
Entering Saturday’s contest, the Cyclones sit at No. 95 nationally in yards allowed per carry as the unit concedes over five yards per carry and is ranked No. 112 allowing 173 rushing yards per contest.
A key reason for the lack of success has been the inconsistency of the defensive line throughout the season.
Iowa State’s front line is No. 124 in both sack percentage and pass rush success rate and has gotten gashed up the middle as they’re allowing 6.6 yards per carry on rushes through either “A” gap.
That bodes well for Cam Skattebo of Arizona State as the majority of his rushes come between the tackles and through the middle led by all-conference center Leif Fantanu.
Prediction: Arizona State 27 Iowa State 20
Arizona State’s path to victory might be the clearest in any game it has had this season besides last week versus Arizona.
With how vulnerable and unsuccessful the Iowa State rushing defense has been, if there was ever a game to showcase why Cam Skattebo is a Heisman trophy candidate and arguably the most valuable player in the country, this is it.
Jordyn Tyson’s injury is a huge blow for the Sun Devils but in this type of game, his loss shouldn’t be extremely noticeable due to the likely game script Dillingham will come out with.
The Sun Devils will likely try to establish the run early and often to control the time of possession and will get Chamon Matayer and Xavier Guillory going early in limited reps in the receiving game in order to keep the defense honest.
This should be a hard fought game, but just as we saw against Utah, Mississippi State, Kansas, and other games this season, Skattebo saves his best for the second half and he’ll help run Arizona State to its first conference title in the Big 12 and the college football playoff.
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