Arizona State can change narrative with win over Mississippi State Saturday

By Jacob Seliga

College Football Writer

Arizona State's defense was spectacular last week against Wyoming. Now, the Sun Devils have an opportunity for a program defining win. (Corey Cross/Hypamark Contributor)

Week 1 was the closest thing possible to a perfect start to the Arizona State season. The Sun Devils pounced on top of Wyoming en route to a 48-7 thrashing of a Cowboys team that won nine games in 2023 and returned 17 starters. 

Coming to town now is SEC opponent Mississippi State, and with that comes the opportunity for Kenny Dillingham to lead the Sun Devils to a potential program-changing win for the 2024 season and beyond.  

Arizona State is winless in five games versus the conference throughout its history, and has the opportunity to expel its demons that include a close loss to LSU in 2005 and a thrashing by Saguaro high alum Christian Kirk and Texas A&M in 2015.

However, unlike the first five matchups, the Sun Devils enter this matchup as the favorite. Most sportsbooks have Arizona State as 6.5-point favorites. A big reason for that was the noticeable improvement on both sides of the ball.

Defensively, this matchup is a crucial test for the rest of the season as Mississippi State’s head coach Jeff Lebby has been the leader for some of the best offenses in college football the last half decade. The key to his success on offense has been how effective the passing game is with his personnel. From 2019-present, Lebby’s offenses have had the highest number of first downs, touchdowns and completions per game and have been in the top five for plays over 30 yards. 

This was shown in Week 1 as three of the Bulldogs six touchdown drives came from explosive plays of 30 or more yards. Mississippi State narrowly averaged more yards per play than ASU did in week one (7.89 to 7.03).  

Unit to Watch: Mississippi State Wide Receivers vs Arizona State Safeties

The back half of the Sun Devils defense passed their Week 1 test with flying colors as Wyoming couldn’t get into a rhythm in the passing game. 

Linebackers Zyrus Fiaseu and Keyshaun Elliott both had interceptions and both Elijah O’Neal and Laterrance Welch had pass breakups as Wyoming quarterbacks finished with only 78 yards through the air. 

Part of the success in that unit came from the fact that Wyoming’s receivers could not create any separation at the line. That won’t be the case as the wide receiver room for the Bulldogs is one of the better units in the SEC. 

Jackson State transfer Kevin Coleman is one of the quickest receivers in the nation and showcased that last week, as he caught five passes for 88 yards and a touchdown and had 117 punt return yards. Kelly Akharaiyi transferred in from UTEP and appears to be available to make his season debut on Saturday. Akharaiyi averaged 21.5 yards per catch and had seven touchdown receptions. He provides the ability to stretch the field over the top. Jordan Mosley was one of the breakout stars of Week 1 as he led the Bulldogs with 104 yards receiving.

This means the safety “trio” of Myles Rowser, Shamari Simmons and Cole Martin will have their hands full by keeping everything in front of them and not biting on play action, which Mississippi State runs a decent bit of. 

Seliga’s Prediction: 34-24 Arizona State Victory

I really do believe Saturday will be a program defining victory that will take the early years of the Kenny Dillingham era to the next level. 

It’s one thing to start the non-conference schedule 2-0, it’s another for the two wins to be against a nine-win team that returned 17 starters and an SEC team. 

For the Sun Devils to make a bowl without pulling off a challenging upset later in the season, this game is crucial. 

Arizona State’s offense was balanced in Week 1 with 258 yards through the air and 241 yards rushing from 11 different rushers, including offensive lineman Keona Peat. The most notable thing that stood out was the continuity on the offensive line and the overall great protection of Sam Leavitt in the backfield. 

The Sun Devils offense relied on passes in the middle of the field and in the flats. That led to a considerable amount of yards after the catch, which is an area the Bulldogs’ defense struggles. Defensively, the pass rushing duo of Elijah O’Neal and Clayton Smith were able to generate pressure and force errant passes. They should be able to do the same this week as well. 

Overall this is a really good matchup for Arizona State, and the Sun Devils should walk off the field 2-0 heading into a short week with a road trip to Texas State on the horizon.