NCAA Tournament National Champion, Cinderella picks

By Jacob Seliga

Lead Writer

“The ball is tipped."

Those four words from Luther Vandross'' "One Shining Moment" echo throughout the college basketball world for three weeks every March and April as the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament takes place.

Starting Thursday, March Madness will begin. And as millions of brackets are filled out and even more people tune in to the Big Dance, everyone debates who the best teams are and who will be the next legend of March.

Cinderella’s come and go and a champion will be crowned once again, this year in San Antonio at the Alamodome.

As you fill out the bracket, use the guide below to help you determine which teams to pick to pull a major upset and who is the team to beat to win a national title.

Cinderella’s To Watch

High Point (13-seed, Midwest Region)

Maybe the most March ready of every mid-major “Cinderella” candidate is the High Point Panthers.

The Panthers check off every box of a March Madness trendy pick. Offensively, High Point averages 118.5 points per 100 offensive possessions, which is the highest for any non-power conference team besides Gonzaga.

Leading the way for the Panthers is an experienced unit built through the transfer portal, including Texas Tech transfer D’Maurian Williams, East Carolina/Kansas transfer Bobby Pettiford alongside returners Kezza Giffa and Kimani Hamilton.

UC San Diego (12-seed, South Region)

The most picked 12-seed to win their first round matchup is a team that is playing in its first-ever tournament.

What’s unique about UC San Diego is that its roster is built through the transfer portal using a similar model that programs such as Auburn have found success with.

As a smaller Division I school with limited resources, opportunities to get top portal talent from the D1 level isn’t easy, but top Division II talent is easier to attract.

Four of their starters were Division II transfers, including the Big West Conference Player of the Year Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones and Big West Defensive Player of the Year Hayden Gray.

Yale (13-seed, South Region)

If last year proved anything, it’s that analytical and slow paced basketball can win games in the tournament, even if the talent level doesn’t match up.

Yale upset 4th seeded Auburn last year and are in prime position to pull another upset this year. The Bulldogs' first-round opponent, Texas A&M, doesn’t mesh well with their strengths.

Texas A&M is one of the worst 3-point shooting defenses in the country. And as Yale proved last year, the Bulldogs can shoot elite from deep.

Yale enters the tournament shooting 38.5% from deep which is top 10 in the country, and five shooters shoot 37.5% or better from behind the arc, including John Poulakidas, who led the Bulldogs over Auburn last season.

Liberty (12-seed, East region)

“Liberty, Liberty, Libbberty, Libbberty” - Your television at one point or another.

That jingle is a commercial classic. But it may be the theme for college basketball fans around the country as the tournament begins on Thursday.

Led by head coach Richie McKay, the Flames have a defensively strong unit that slows the game down and forces teams to play their style of game, which is like an anaconda strangling the life out of you.

The Flames are 27-0 when holding teams under 70 points and opponents are shooting an abysmal 28% from deep against them.

On the flip side, Liberty is one of the most efficient and best shooting teams in the country. A big reason for that is potential March Madness darling Colin Porter.

As one of the smallest guards in the tournament, Porter shoots well over 40% from behind the arc, but his impact is passing the ball and getting his teammates involved in every phase of the game.

Liberty is No. 2 in the country with a 58.4% effective field goal percentage, No. 5 with a 39.5% three point percentage and is No. 7 in overall field goal percentage at 49%.

National Champion Pick

Auburn (1 seed, South region)

Entering the month of March at 26-2, no team in the nation looked more equipped to win the national championship than the Auburn Tigers.

Auburn went to Rupp Arena on March 1 (the same place they’ll play the first two rounds of the tournament this weekend) and clinched the SEC regular-season championship after rolling through a conference that was in the midst of the best season by a league in the modern era.

Auburn proceeded to go Texas A&M shorthanded and fall to the Aggies in a game that cemented A&M as a top four seed in the tournament, and lost at the buzzer to rival Alabama entering the SEC tournament.

The Tigers lost to SEC tournament runner-up Tennessee in a tight battle in the semifinals, yet still earned the top overall seed in the NCAA tournament.

Although Auburn enters the big dance on somewhat of a skid, the Tigers can point to history on their side.

No national champion has lost before their conference tournament semifinals since 1985. Auburn made the SEC Semifinals. UConn, in 2011, also lost its final two regular season games before winning the national title.

With that historical precedent in place, Auburn’s case becomes clearer.

The Tigers are led by one of the two candidates for National Player of the Year, Johni Broome, who has been a force all season long on both ends of the court averaging 19 points, 10.6 rebounds and 2.4 blocks per game.

Broome was a unanimous First-Team AP All-American and joined Charles Barkley and Chris Porter as the only two Tigers to be selected as AP SEC Player of the Year.

Alongside Broome is one of the best and deepest lineups in college basketball, with elite two-way players Miles Kelly, Denver Jones and Chad Baker-Mazara.

On the season, Auburn won 16 games against quad 1 opponents, which clears the rest of the field of 68 teams including No. 2 overall seed Duke, who won seven less quad 1 games than the Tigers.

Being battle tested with an experienced lineup is crucial to March success, and Auburn checks off both of those boxes.

The Tigers will roll past Alabama State in round one before a matchup against either Louisville or Creighton in the round of 32. Oddly enough, that should be the trickiest matchup for Auburn prior to the Elite 8.

The sweet 16 opponent for the Tigers is likely an upset candidate as both Michigan and Texas A&M find themselves facing off against two trendy “Cinderella” picks in Yale and UC San Diego.

In the Elite 8, Michigan State, which based off historical trends is a possible first weekend losing candidate, or an injured Iowa State unit would likely await the Tigers, who will be in their stride playing a de-facto home game in Atlanta.